Houston forward Ja’Vier Francis (5) dunks the ball during the second half against Arizona during the Big 12 Conference tournament Saturday in Kansas City, Mo. AP file photo

The weather’s getting warmer, and March Madness is here. By Sunday night, 68 will just be 16. Madness indeed.

An unprecedented 14 teams are from the SEC, with six of the top 12 teams. The conference is so strong that TWO teams (conference newcomers Texas and Oklahoma) got in despite having 6-12 records in conference games. The inclusion of North Carolina was polarizing. They had a solid resume and strength of schedule, but just ONE top tier (“Quad 1”) win. UNC was taken ahead of comparable teams with more Quad 1 wins (Boise had 3, Indiana had 4 and West Virginia had 6). But it is what it is. 

Last year we were so close in this space: Purdue lost in the final. Let’s project this year’s storylines. 

BEASTS IN THE EAST: Tournament favorite Duke has the toughest road. After they make short work of the 16 seed and Baylor, Arizona (4) lurks: a preseason top 10 team that made the tourney final in a tough Big 12. Arizona can — and WILL — upset the Blue Devils. The lower half of the East is brutal. BYU (6) is on fire lately but will get upset by VCU. Wisconsin (3) can score with anybody and should make the Sweet 16. And Alabama plays a super-fast, high scoring game that even St. Mary’s won’t slow down. Look for the Crimson Tide and veteran superstar Mark Sears to roll through the early rounds and race past Arizona in the Elite 8!

EARLY EXITS OUT WEST: If any bracket is going to be shattered, it’s this one. Colorado State, Drake, and Grand Canyon (in that order) all have good shots at upsetting higher seeds, but the first high seed will go down here. Preseason No. 1 Kansas fell to a 7-seed, but is nowhere near as weak as your average 7. St. John’s has hardly been challenged in recent weeks. I think Kansas finally shows up. This will open the door for Texas Tech (3), already a borderline 2-seed, to make the Elite 8. Florida’s red hot and a trendy title pick, but Tech has been tested too and will pull the upset.

CAKEWALK TO THE MIDWEST ELITE 8: Houston and Tennessee have little resistance on the way to the Regional Final. Who will stop them? Purdue (4) will probably go down in the first round. Gonzaga isn’t what it was. Kentucky is inconsistent and fighting injuries (finally healthy Illinois will upset them!). Per KenPom’s rankings, the Cougars and Volunteers are as even as it gets, and you can expect a low-scoring defensive battle. Go with Houston and Kelvin Sampson.

ABOUT THE TOP OVERALL SEED: Auburn is the best team with the best resume. They should beat a tough Creighton team in the second round. SEC rival Texas A&M won’t stop them (A&M will lose to the Michigan/UCSD winner). I was seriously considering Iowa State (3) here, but they tailed off late and lost a key player so I can’t do it. Michigan State has the depth and D to hang around the Tigers, but Auburn’s recent skid was their wake-up call. They win this region.

FIRST ROUND AMBUSHES: I feel really good about Colorado State upsetting way-over-seeded Memphis. I can see Clemson, a weak 5-seed, getting upset by McNeese. If UC San Diego were playing anyone but Michigan I’d pick them but the Wolverines looked good in winning the Big Ten Tourney, so I can’t quite take the Tritons here. I am not feeling Liberty over Oregon at all. I like High Point to beat Purdue, who isn’t playing well, but the other 4’s aren’t vulnerable enough. Some 6’s could go down – the winner of the North Carolina-San Diego State play-in could well beat Ole Miss, and I already mentioned taking VCU. Consider taking Drake to upset Missouri. 

THE FINAL FOUR: Two SEC teams (a 1 and a 2), two Big 12 teams, and no Big Ten. Houston against Alabama is defense vs offense, and I’m taking Houston’s defense here. Auburn’s athleticism and player of the year favorite Johni Broome will be too much for Texas Tech. And in the final in San Antonio, with Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olajuwon (probably) in attendance, the Houston Cougars will cut down the nets and finally win Houston a national title.

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Chris LaGrow is a Fredonia resident and part-time Bracketologist.