Recent extreme rain events in Asheville, N.C., Valencia, Spain, and other places have me thinking.

The North Carolina flooding was caused by over 30 inches of rain from Hurricane Helene, while parts of Valencia received 20 inches during an intense rainstorm last month. In both events, over 200 people were killed in locations residents thought were safe from disasters. Hurricane Harvey dropped over 60 inches of rain on Houston over a 4-day period, killing 100 people. It was the largest ever recorded rainfall total in the US, exceeding the total set by Hurricane Hiki in Hawaii in 1950. Smaller storms this July dropped almost 7 inches of rain on Vermont, causing devastating flooding. Closer to home, an intense rainstorm dropped 13.5 inches of rain on Suffolk County in 2011, the largest recorded rainfall in the state. This past August, a slow moving front dropped 10 inches of rain on New York and almost 15 inches on Oxford, Conn.

Think such flooding can’t happen here? Think again. Asheville, N.C. is 400 miles from the Gulf of Mexico, the source of the 30 inches of water that fell last month. Jamestown is 300 miles from the Jersey Shore and the Atlantic Ocean, the source of the 13 inches of water that fell on Suffolk County.

It is no secret that climate change is warming the atmosphere and that warmer air is capable of holding more water vapor. That fact is a major contributing factor to the increasing flooding all over the globe. The Fifth National Climate Assessment was released this year and confirms that extreme precipitation events in the NorthEast have increased dramatically over the past 20 years. The number of days with recorded precipitation of 4 or more inches has increased by 82%. The number of days with recorded precipitation of 5 or more inches has doubled, increasing by 103%. Not only can it happen here, the likelihood is increasing as is the intensity.

What would happen if 13 inches of rain fell in Chautauqua County? The Chautauqua Lake watershed is 115,349 acres. 13 inches of rain over that watershed would result in 125,000 acre feet or over 5 billion cubic feet of water with only one place to go, the Chadakoin River through downtown Jamestown. The surface area of the lake is 13,000 acres, so 13 inches of rain over the watershed would raise the lake level by almost 10 feet, spilling onto the shore and down the river.

The next time you cross over the Chadakoin on Fairmont or Foote Ave look around and ask yourself what 5 billion cubic feet of water flowing past in a short period of time would do? Then ask your councilperson if they are preparing for it. It is already too late to stop climate change. All we can do is prepare for what is coming and try to keep it from getting worse.

Tom Meara is a Jamestown resident.