Area school board members will tell residents repeatedly that annual budgets have very little wiggle room. According to a recent presentation by Dr. Rick Timbs to the Dunkirk district, expenses in the coming years will be making that echo become even louder.

Timbs, who is director of the Statewide School Finance Consortium, spoke at a meeting last month. Besides advocating for annual 2% property tax increases, he pointed out some reasons to be concerned about rising costs.

He expects instructional salaries to go up 37.8% between 2022 and 2027, but district revenue will only go up about 23%. Transportation costs, salaries for non-instructional employees, and retirement benefits will each be up more than 23% as well.

Overall, Timbs said, city district costs are expected to rise by 24.9% from 2022 to 2027.

“What we’ve got to do is keep an eye on these expenses,” Timbs said. “We’ve got to make sure we decrease the cost of the escalation in these estimates, because what’s going to happen is, you’re going to start to tap these reserves. So the cautionary tale is: Great situation right now, great planning. But I see some threats to the money situation going forward, as expenses start to greatly outstrip your revenues.”

His message would likely be the same for many other districts. Lots of stimulus funding — and generous state aid — have stabilized many. But in 2008 — during the last real recession — school districts dealt with pains of job cuts and problematic contractual obligations.

Easy street has been a nice drive, but troubles may lie ahead. Districts need to heed Timbs’ projections.