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Raised Eyebrows

Cummins, New Flyer Seek Stability From Trump Administration

Lee Zeldin, a former Republican congressman from New York, speaks before Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump at a campaign rally at Ed Fry Arena in Indiana, Pa. AP photo

The past four years have been boom times for companies trying to capitalize on the transition away from diesel engines – including Cummins Inc. and NFI Group, owner of the New Flyer plant in Jamestown.

It raised eyebrows among investor analysts how President-elect Donald Trump’s campaign pledges to roll back the Biden administration’s promotion of electric vehicles would affect the companies. Trump has proposed an energy policy – and transportation infrastructure spending – anchored to fossil fuels: roads, bridges and combustion-engine vehicles. Trump has said he does not oppose electric vehicles but promises to end all Biden incentives to encourage EV market development. Trump also pledges to roll back Biden-era fuel efficiency standards.

Trump’s appointment of Lee Zelidn, former New York candidate for governor and a former U.S. House member, continued those questions.

Earlier this week, Trump said Zeldin “will ensure fair and swift deregulatory decisions that will be enacted in a way to unleash the power of American businesses, while at the same time maintaining the highest environmental standards, including the cleanest air and water on the planet.”

But both Cummins and NFI Group officials say the former – and new – president’s actions speak louder than his recent campaign speeches and pronouncements. Cummins officials are allaying investor analysts’ concerns by noting its past history with both the Trump and Biden administrations.

“Yes. I mean, at the end of the day, Cummins is going to do what we’ve always done,” said Jennifer Rumsey, Cummins president and CEO. “We’re going to work across party lines and engage on issues that are important for our business and our industry, and we’ll do that. We’ve done that with the Biden administration and the past administration and we’ll do it with the next administration. And what’s really important to us and our industry is having that regulatory legislative stability. And we do not expect any change regardless of the outcome and the election on the 2027 regulations for our industry.”

As the next product in the Cummins HELM 15-liter fuel agnostic platform, the diesel X15 – being produced at Cummins’ Jamestown Engine Plant after a $452 million investment in a line retooling – will be compliant with U.S. EPA and CARB 2027 aligned regulations at launch. The next generation X15 diesel engine in North America will serve the heavy-duty on-highway market. Maintaining the traditional reliability and lower operating costs that have met the needs of a diverse customer base since the inaugural X15 launch in 1998, the next generation, advanced diesel X15 will feature improved greenhouse gas and fuel efficiency benefits while retaining the same ratings of the current X15 (up to 605 horsepower and 2,050 ft-lb of torque) and optimizing powertrain integration with Eaton Cummins and Cummins-Meritor.

Cummins is committed to innovation and providing quality solutions to customers, like internal combustion engines and alternative technologies. This next-generation engine is designed to have the capability to meet future emissions regulations beyond 2027 without the need for significant architecture changes. This investment will help the company maintain technology leadership for the next decade as it continues to fund future research and development in hydrogen and alternative fuel engines, battery electric and fuel cell powertrains.

“So as we have in the past, we’re really — we have a history of being first into the market with products that comply with new regulations and deliver increased value to our customers, and we’re always focusing on the landscape, what’s the right product at the right time, how do we take– consider regulatory flexibility and credits as a part of that strategy. And given all that, we do intend to launch the diesel version of the 15-liter HELM platform in 2026 ahead of the 2027 regulation,” Rumsey said. .

For New Flyer, subsidies for zero emissions buses have driven a backlog of orders well into 2026, according to the company’s recent third quarter earnings statements. Ending those subsidies could put a dent on NFI Group’s bottom line, but Paul Soubry, NFI Group president and CEO, is banking on traditional bipartisan support for transit funding.

“I wish I had a crystal ball, but let’s look at a little bit of history and let’s also kind of get a status quo,” Soubry said during a recent conference call. “So first of all transit funding for the last 20 years – 25 years – has for the most part been a bipartisan issue because it’s not just green transit that’s big right now. Trying to get congestion, trying to get pollution out of the cities, trying to get more people out of their cars and therefore efficiently through cities and so forth has been supported by both Republicans and Democrats.”Number two, the previous Trump administration took over and supported the Obama administration’s FAST Act that went through, I think it was 2016 to 2020. And then in fact Trump extended it into 2021. Number three, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is currently in place until 2026 and funding from that act is currently and will be continued to be used to purchase 2027 and 2028 builds. It’s hard to essay at this stage what the new administration’s post-IIJA funding might look like, although our industry generally believes there’s an expectation there will be continued bipartisan support for transit.”

Officials from both companies say their refusal to focus on one specific product bodes well for the future as well. Cummins’ fuel-agnostic engines allow the company to move in a number of directions as technology improves. Soubry said NFI Group is in much the same situation with its offerings, something he said can help NFI Group weather the storm if Trump proves not to be as friendly to green technology as the Biden administration has been.

“The other thing that I’ll comment on is if somebody hypothesizes that Mr. Trump will not be as green in his outlook, so that may be the case,” Soubry said. “But that’s part of the reason we chose to be propulsion-agnostic. We’ve seen a number of competitors recently go out of business or changed dramatically where they only have a zero-emission offering. We’ve chosen to be agnostic … So our ability to kind of continue to provide whatever they need depending on their funding or their political environment, we think helps safeguard a little bit as opposed to people that are only zero emission. But who knows what Mr. Trump and the administration might do. Right now, there’s a lot of funding in place that will help only build our order book for the next couple of years.”

Electrovaya, a company that manufactures lithium ion batteries that aim to replace gas-powered forklifts in warehouses or for robots on manufacturing floors, aim to fill needs that exist in the marketplace independent of government subsidies or contracts. The company is building a new factory in Ellicott that will boost its ability to capture additional market share in the lithium ion battery market.

“For the most part, going back to this conservative (corporate) mentality we’ve kind of shied away from applications which need government support in order for them to work because you never know, someone else might get elected and they’ll shelve that,” Raj Das Gupta, Electrovaya CEO, told The Post-Journal on Friday. “And that’s exactly what’s happened. So we are in applications that are mission critical which really want to use our technology more based on performance as the primary winning criteria. I think that sentiment is going to continue.”

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