Former Ford Motor Company global technologist, John Ellis, presented the keynote speech for Wednesday’s session of “Retool ‘22.” Ellis spoke on the future of the automotive industry, which he believes is based on electric vehicles and an autonomous ownership model. P-J photo by Timothy Frudd

John Ellis doesn’t recommend manufacturers approach the coming years with fear. Paranoia is a better approach.

Retool Western New York’s “Retool ’22: A Climate Tech Manufacturing Conference for Manufacturers,” continued Wednesday featuring John Ellis, a former Ford Motor Company global technologist and innovator at Motorola, gave the keynote speech centered around the future of automobiles. Ellis opened his speech with a warning for each of the manufacturers and attendees.

“Things are changing,” he said, “so take a good look.”

As someone with decades of experience in the business world and a leader in innovation, Ellis said his goal is to help different organizations consider their future. While he believes manufacturers have a hopeful future, he made it clear that the world of manufacturing will experience a major transition over the next couple decades that will require foresight, creativity and innovation.

“If I am successful this morning, when you walk out of here, there’s going to be something going on with your gut,” he said. “Most of you normally would ascribe it to fear. I’m going to ask you instead to think about it as paranoia. Fear will freeze you. Paranoia sets up a level of discomfort that says, ‘Something’s not right. I need to change.'”

Ellis said his presentation is meant to provoke people to change, provide alternative ways of conducting business, and to provide warnings for business leaders regarding the future of various industries.

Ellis explained that over the past century, the automobile has quickly become a crucial mode of transportation and has greatly benefited from the innovation of manufacturers. Showcasing the importance of automobile transportation, Ellis said in 2020 the Federal Highway Association recorded over 4,161,000 miles of roadway in the United States.

Despite the success of automobiles, Ellis said there are key problems in the transportation industry. He explained an “unintended consequence” of the automobile industry is that the United States has over two billion parking spaces. He also shared that 42,915 people died in motor vehicle crashes in 2021. As a result, Ellis believes manufacturers in the transportation industry need to show the world, “We can build technology that will not be fallible for driving.”

One solution Ellis offered was the concept of an autonomous vehicle ownership model which would reduce the number of people owning their own vehicles and would result in a transition to people relying on shared vehicle services for transportation. While Ellis acknowledged this vehicle ownership model may not be widely adopted in the U.S. for some time, he shared examples of cities and countries that have already seen a rise in autonomous vehicle ownership.

Regardless of car ownership models, Ellis said the future of car manufacturing is guaranteed to center around electric vehicles.

Comparing electric vehicles with traditional gas-powered vehicles, Ellis said there are several factors that can be examined which make a compelling case for the superiority of electric vehicles.

While a traditional vehicle has over 2,200 moving parts, an electric vehicle has less than 40 moving parts.

“On a complexity factor alone, the EV wins,” Ellis said.

Ellis said an electric vehicle retains more of its power, allowing it to easily surpass the efficiency of gas-powered vehicles. He also said the “political winds” are pushing the future of the automobile industry toward a fast transition to electric vehicles. Additionally, he believes the industry will be guided by economic factors.

“There’s going to be an economic movement pushing for autonomy and electric vehicles,” he said.

Ellis used Tesla as an example of a company that persevered through setbacks, disappointments and ridicule to become a trillion dollar company dominated by innovative technology and software. He encouraged manufacturers and business leaders to be creative and take a different approach in the future of innovation for their companies.

Ellis concluded his speech with four points of application for each of the attendees.

“Get comfortable being uncomfortable,” he said. “Do not underestimate exponential change. Always say yes; be thoughtful of when you say no. Understand you are in the business of whatever you’re doing as a service.”