No one is quite sure how the 25% increase on electricity by Ontario will impact rates moving forward for Western New York households. Canada’s province exports power to 1.5 million Americans, including those within this state, Minnesota and Michigan.

In a statement on Monday, the New York Independent System Operator said: “The NYISO is analyzing the impacts of the order by the Ontario Premier and working closely with the Independent Electricity Operator of Ontario to ensure a reliable grid and stable flows of electricity across interregional transmission lines. The NYISO expects to have adequate reserves to meet reliability criteria and forecasted demand for New York.”

But that gives no indication on possible rate increases for those delivering power to households that include National Grid and NYSEG.

“I will not hesitate to increase this charge. If the United States escalates, I will not hesitate to shut the electricity off completely,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said at a news conference in Toronto.

“Believe me when I say I do not want to do this. I feel terrible for the American people who didn’t start this trade war. It’s one person who is responsible, it’s President Trump.”

Ford said Ontario’s tariff would remain in place despite the one-month reprieve from Trump, noting a one-month pause means nothing but more uncertainty. Quebec is also considering taking similar measures with electricity exports to the U.S.

New York state Gov. Kathy Hochul and U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer announced steps to review the harmful impacts of the federal energy tariffs and the Canadian retaliation that threaten to drive up electricity and heating costs, destabilize our energy markets, and hurt families and businesses across the state by making New York less affordable. In a letter written to the Department of Public Service (DPS) and the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), the Governor directs an expeditious review of President Trump’s tariffs and the retaliatory measures being taken by Ontario Premier Doug Ford to provide a transparent accounting of their effects on energy prices and supply reliability.

“These federal tariffs have been poorly conceived from the start: crafted in secret with no transparency and no clear economic rationale, they’ve only served to destabilize our capital markets and create uncertainty among New York families and businesses,” Hochul said. “This is a textbook example of bad public policy and I’m calling on President Trump to immediately rescind his tariffs before they inflict further damage on working families — and if he won’t act, Congress must. The people of New York deserve transparency and accountability. We will not allow President Trump and Congressional Republicans to play politics with our energy security while hardworking New Yorkers foot the bill.”

Ford’s office said the new market rules require any generator selling electricity to the U.S. to add a 25% surcharge. Ontario’s government expects it to generate revenue of $300,000 Canadian dollars ($208,000) to CA$400,000 ($277,000) per day, “which will be used to support Ontario workers, families and businesses.”

The new surcharge is in addition to the federal government’s initial CA$30 billion ($21 billion) worth of retaliatory tariffs that have been applied on items like American orange juice, peanut butter, coffee, appliances, footwear, cosmetics, motorcycles and certain pulp and paper products.

Schumer said, “President Trump’s reckless tariffs on Canadian energy imports are a direct hit to New Yorkers’ wallets, driving up utility costs — from Buffalo to the Bronx — and disrupting energy markets, while creating uncertainty for businesses and families. A prolonged trade war has the potential to disrupt the flow of natural gas and electricity, including hydroelectric power, from Canada, disruptions we cannot afford during a time of rising costs. We cannot let a century-long energy partnership between New York and Canada be destroyed due to President Trump’s harmful, short-sighted actions.”

Trump launched a new trade war last week by imposing tariffs against Washington’s three biggest trading partners, drawing immediate retaliation from Mexico, Canada and China and sending financial markets into a tailspin.

Trump later said he has postponed 25% tariffs on many goods from Canada and Mexico for a month, amid widespread fears of a broader trade war.

Ford estimated it will add about CA$100 ($69) a month to the bills of each American affected.

“It needs to end. Until these tariffs are off the table, until the threat of tariffs is gone for good, Ontario will not relent,” Ford said.

Ford said Trump changes his mind every day, but if he continues to attack Canada he will do everything it takes to maximize the pain.

“Republicans, at least the ones I speak to, do not agree with President Trump but they are too scared to go out there and say it publicly,” Ford said. “It’s a shame but we need to end this.”

Trump has urged U.S. automakers to move auto production from Canada and Mexico to the U.S. Last week Trump granted a one-month exemption to 25% tariffs on vehicles and auto parts traded through the North American trade agreement USMCA after speaking with leaders of automakers Ford, General Motors and Stellantis. Ontario is the auto sector hub of Canada.

Premier Ford also noted Trump is threatening Canada with steel, aluminum and diary tariffs.

“I will do whatever it takes to maximum the pain against Americans,” Ford said.

Stephen Lecce, Ontario’s minister of energy and electrification, said the U.S. needs Canada’s power and it could impact other states as well as the three states often resale Ontario’s electricity. “It is regrettable we are here,” Lecce said.