Clothes hang on a line outside an Amish home. Photo by J.D. Davidson/Center Square

With only two weeks left until the presidential election, Amish communities are experiencing deja vu.

That is because efforts are higher than ever to encourage voting among a population that’s traditionally refrained from doing so.

Historically, the Amish are family-centric, with religious and cultural traditions that shape their political views. Their faith-based convictions regarding violence, power and political engagement often keep them away from the polls.

Though voter registration recruitment efforts remain high, it’s difficult to estimate how many members of the Amish community sign up. Nearly 400,000 exist nationwide across 654 individual settlements. The largest populations are recorded in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana and Wisconsin, according to the Young Center for Amish Studies.

Although small, their contributions to the outcome of the election can be mighty.

Though Ohio and Indiana voted conservative in 2020, Trump lost Wisconsin. Biden flipped the state by 20,682 votes, where the Amish population, including children, is 26,365, according to data from The Young Center for Anabaptist and Pietist Studies.

Trump also lost Pennsylvania in 2020 by 80,555 votes. The estimated size of the Amish community in the commonwealth is more than 92,000, the largest in the country.

Trump isn’t the first Republican candidate to court the community, either. In 2004, former President George W. Bush stumped in Lancaster County, Pa. and Holmes County, Ohio. In that election, data shows Amish participation increased by 13%. By 2016, the rate fell to 7% and 8%, respectively.

Postdoctoral scholar Cory Anderson said in an email to The Center Square that it’s unclear if a substantially new number of Amish are registering to vote. He said it most likely won’t be clear until after the election, referring to his recent article centered on Amish voting in Pennsylvania.

In it, Anderson writes that mail-in ballots may ease the Amish community’s travel demands, whose iconic horse-drawn carriages have become synonymous with their culture. Long working days and a self-imposed sense of shame from the moral ambiguity of voting make the anonymity of mail-in voting more appealing.

“However, even with mail-in ballots, the very act of registering to vote may still strike plain registrants as signing their name to a blank check,” Anderson writes, describing a pervasive trust that may leave Amish votes wondering, “What else is the government signing me up for that they’re not telling me?”

Scott Presler, a conservative activist and founder of Early Vote Action, has honed in on the Amish vote by going door-to-door, offering rides, or helping them register to vote. He encourages mail-in voting, too.

“To our beautiful Amish in Lancaster in Pennsylvania and across the state, we will protect your raw milk, your dairy, your farming, your school choice, your religious freedom, your ability to have ten beautiful children per family,” said Pressler at a Trump rally in Butler, in western Pennsylvania.

The reference is to Amos Miller, a dairy farmer in Bird-in-Hand, Pa., who the state Department of Agriculture blocked from selling raw dairy products.

And although their numbers are still small, Amish communities are spreading west. When families move to these new areas, others tend to follow, with the total population doubling over the last two decades.

Since 2000, Colorado, Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming have each seen settlements built with a combined population of 2,400 as of 2024.

The increase of Amish communities growing in states that typically vote blue has some taking notice. New York’s Amish population increased from 4,505 in 2000 to 24,325 in 2024, according to documents.

The same for Michigan, with a reported 8,495 Amish population in 2000, increasing to 20,690 by 2024.

Kentucky, which was won by Trump in 2020, had an Amish population of 4,850 in 2000, increasing to 15,915 across 54 settlements in 2024. Missouri followed them with a population of 5,480 Amish in 2000, rising to 17,635 in 2024.